Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 1 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Price vs. Fair Value
0
50
100
150
200
Fair Value: 134.0022 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
Last Close: 129.06Over ValuedUnder Valued
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.99 0.96 1.32 1.30 0.87 0.96 Price/Fair Value
19.84 37.87 40.64 18.61 -29.04 10.30 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 2 Feb 2023. Last Close as of 2 Feb 2023. Fair Value as of 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC.
Contents
Business Description
Business Strategy & Outlook (22 Dec 2022)
Bulls Say / Bears Say (22 Dec 2022)
Economic Moat (21 Dec 2022)
Fair Value and Profit Drivers (21 Dec 2022)
Risk and Uncertainty (21 Dec 2022)
Capital Allocation (21 Dec 2022)
Analyst Notes Archive
Financials
Appendix
Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
Important Disclosure
The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of
Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), and
Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please
visit: http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures.
The primary analyst covering this company does not own its stock.
1The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a representation of Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk
Rating.
Wide-Moat Nike’s Powerful Brand and Digital Strategy
Allowing It to Overcome Market Turmoil
Business Strategy & Outlook David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
We view Nike as the leader of the athletic apparel market and believe it will overcome current
challenges despite near-term inventory and economic issues. Our wide moat rating on the company is
based on its intangible brand asset, as we believe it will maintain premium pricing and generate
economic profits for at least 20 years. Nike, the largest athletic footwear brand in all major categories
and in all major markets, dominates categories like running and basketball with popular shoe styles.
While it does face significant competition, we believe it has proven over a long period that it can
maintain share and pricing.
We think Nike’s strategies allow it to maintain its leadership position. Over the last few years, Nike has
invested in its direct-to-consumer network while cutting many wholesale accounts. In North America
and elsewhere, the firm has reduced its exposure to undifferentiated retailers while increasing its
connections with a small number of retailers that bring the Nike brand closer to consumers, carry a full
range of products, and allow it to control the brand message. Nike’s consumer plan is led by its Triple
Double strategy to double innovation, speed, and direct connections to consumers. Triple Double
includes cutting product creation times in half, increasing membership in Nike’s mobile apps, and
improving the selection of key franchises while reducing its styles by 25%. We think these strategies
will allow Nike to hold share and pricing.© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 2 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Although its recent results in China have been inconsistent due to supply issues, virus-related
restrictions, and a political controversy, we still believe Nike has a great opportunity for growth there
and in other emerging markets. The firm experienced double-digit annual sales growth in six of the past
eight years in greater China and, fueled by high government investment in athletics, we think it will do
so again after the current difficulties have passed. Moreover, with worldwide distribution and huge e-
commerce platform that exceeded $10 billion in fiscal 2022, Nike should benefit as more people in
China, Latin America, and other developing regions move into the middle class and gain broadband
access.
Bulls Say David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
u Nike has a great opportunity in fast-growing markets like China. More than 70% of Nike’s growth over
the next five years may come from outside North America.
u Nike’s Triple Double strategy of increased innovation, direct-to-consumer sales, and speed may improve
margins and share. Membership growth in its digital channel has exceeded expectations.
u We anticipate Nike’s gross margins will rise by about 30 basis points per year after fiscal 2024 through
automation, e-commerce, and higher prices. Nike is pulling back from undifferentiated retailers to
increase full-priced sales.
Bears Say David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
u As a worldwide business, Nike is exposed to global issues like the war in Ukraine, shipping delays,
currency volatility, and high input costs. Nike's long-term results could be affected if these problems
persist.
u Nike has recently suffered poor results in China as rising nationalism has boosted native brands and
virus-related restrictions have disrupted operations. Nike cannot afford to lose significant share in this
critical sportswear market.
u Nike has struggled to manage its inventory, requiring markdowns to clear excess product that have
negatively impacted margins.
Economic Moat David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
We assign a wide moat rating to Nike based on its intangible brand asset. Nike is the largest athletic
apparel company in the world, with nearly $47 billion in revenue in fiscal 2022. Its revenue has
increased in nine of the past 10 years, with the pandemic-affected fiscal 2021 as the sole exception.
Nike produces apparel and footwear for professional and amateur athletes, sports equipment, and
sports-inspired fashion for both athletes and nonathletes alike. As evidence of its competitive edge, the
firm's adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, have averaged 37% over the past
decade. We forecast that the company's average annual adjusted ROICs, including goodwill, will exceed
its weighted average cost of capital over the next 20 years, as required for our wide moat rating. We
Sector Industry
t Consumer Cyclical Footwear & Accessories
Business Description
Nike is the largest athletic footwear and apparel brand
in the world. It designs, develops, and markets athletic
apparel, footwear, equipment, and accessories in six
major categories: running, basketball, football (soccer),
training, sportswear, and Jordan. Footwear generates
about two thirds of its sales. Nike’s brands include Nike,
Jordan, and Converse (casual footwear). Nike sells
products worldwide and outsources its production to
more than 300 factories in more than 30 countries. Nike
was founded in 1964 and is based in Beaverton, Oregon.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 3 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
CompetitorsNike Inc Class B NKE Under Armour Inc A UAA VF Corp VFC Hanesbrands Inc HBI
Fair Value134.00Uncertainty : Medium
Last Close129.06
Fair Value15.50Uncertainty : High
Last Close12.78
Fair Value61.00Uncertainty : Medium
Last Close31.14
Fair Value22.00Uncertainty : High
Last Close6.28
Economic Moat Wide None Narrow Narrow
Moat Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable
Currency USD USD USD USD
Fair Value 134.00 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC 15.50 28 Nov 2022 17:04, UTC 61.00 5 Dec 2022 20:18, UTC 22.00 16 Nov 2022 03:44, UTC
1-Star Price 180.90 24.03 82.35 34.10
5-Star Price 93.80 9.30 42.70 13.20
AssessmentFairly Valued 2 Feb 2023 Under Valued 1 Feb 2023 Significantly
Undervalued
1 Feb
2023
Significantly
Undervalued
1 Feb
2023
Morningstar Rating QQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst
Capital Allocation Exemplary Standard Exemplary Standard
Price/Fair Value 0.96 0.82 0.51 0.29
Price/Sales 4.20 1.05 1.04 0.47
Price/Book 13.15 3.18 3.98 4.50
Price/Earning 36.58 27.19 29.30 8.62
Dividend Yield 0.97% — 6.35% 6.89%
Market Cap 200.80 Bil 5.41 Bil 12.29 Bil 3.04 Bil
52-Week Range 82.22—149.46 6.38—20.65 25.05—66.96 5.65—16.75
Investment Style Large Growth Small Core Mid Value Small Value
estimate Nike's weighted average cost of capital at 9% and expect its annual adjusted ROICs, including
goodwill, to average 63% over the next decade. We believe Nike has been the preferred sportswear
brand in the world since the 1980s and that it will remain so for many years.
Nike achieves premium pricing on many products, supporting our view of its brand power. Its
performance athletic shoes are the most expensive on the market. At footlocker.com, for example, Nike
produces most of the styles of men's performance basketball shoes that cost $170 or more per pair (as
of December 2022). Some fashionable Nike shoes retail for prices associated with luxury footwear
brands. For example, luxury retailer farfetch.com lists dozens of styles of Nike sneakers at prices above
$1,000 per pair. Moreover, as evidence of Nike's enduring popularity, older and limited-edition shoes are
regularly sold in resale markets for more than $10,000 per pair.
We believe Nike's wide moat is supported by its worldwide reach. The company ships products to more
than 190 countries, operates more than 1,000 stores (two thirds outside of the U.S.), and has another © Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 4 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
6,000 or so branded stores that are operated by franchisees. We estimate Nike's annual revenue to be
about double that of the world's second-largest sportswear firm, narrow-moat Adidas. Nike produced
$29 billion in fiscal 2022 footwear sales, more than the combined footwear sales of Adidas, Puma, and
no-moat Under Armour. It has market-leading share in footwear in all markets and major categories and
ships more than 800 million pairs of shoes per year. It is also the leader in athletic apparel, producing
$13.6 billion in apparel sales in fiscal 2022. Although Nike is an American brand, 59% of fiscal 2022
sales of the brand came from outside of North America. We believe that no athletic apparel company
will be able to approach its global market share in at least the next 20 years, supporting our view that it
has a wide moat.
Nike's brand is enhanced by its large e-commerce business in the U.S. and other countries. We estimate
that Nike generated more than $10 billion in e-commerce sales from its digital marketplaces in fiscal
2022, having grown from about $1.5 billion in fiscal 2015. Nike expects digital sales from its own
channels to increase to 40% of its sales in fiscal 2025, up from about 24% in fiscal 2022. We think this
growth is achievable as more consumers in developing markets (such as China, India, and Latin
America) move into the middle class and gain access to broadband services. Nike is investing heavily in
its digital services. Its apps, known as NikePlus, have about 160 million members. Its Training Club and
Run Club apps are the largest apps in their fields in the U.S. and Europe and its SNKRS app for hard-
core shoe collectors reportedly has several million members. Nike produces limited-edition products that
are exclusive to members of NikePlus. For example, more than one third of Cristiano Ronaldo's Mercurial
soccer cleats are available only on nike.com and its apps. Many Nike-sponsored athletes, including
Ronaldo, have tens and even hundreds of millions of social media followers. Nike uses their fame to
promote its products to a huge audience at relatively low cost. The firm supports its e-commerce with
some innovative digital products, such as NikeConnect, a service that allows people to take a picture of
a Nike product and identify it. This is a useful service, as Nike estimates there are 5 billion individual
Nike products in the world. We believe Nike's large digital community creates goodwill among its best
customers and promotes the brand. While other athletic apparel companies have e-commerce, none of
them have the reach of Nike. We think its apps support our wide moat rating.
Nike sponsors many of the world's most popular athletes and teams in virtually all major sports. Athletes
sponsored by Nike include Cristiano Ronaldo (football/soccer), LeBron James (basketball), Kevin Durant
(basketball), Mike Trout (baseball), Giancarlo Stanton (baseball), Rafael Nadal (tennis), Serena Williams
(tennis), Alex Morgan (soccer), Michael Jordan, and many track and field athletes. Teams and leagues
sponsored by Nike include the NFL, the NBA, many U.S. and international college teams, many national
soccer leagues, and the national soccer teams of numerous nations, including Brazil, France, and
England. In 2020, for the first time, Nike's swoosh logo appeared on the front of every Major League
Baseball uniform. Nike is the sponsor of choice for athletes and teams due to its status as the world's
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 5 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
largest apparel brand and the tremendous success of its nearly 40-year relationship with Michael
Jordan. LeBron James famously turned down more money from Reebok to sign with Nike in 2003,
ultimately dooming Reebok to irrelevance in basketball shoes. Whether sponsored or not, athletes all
over the world wear Nike apparel while competing. For example, its Mercurial line of soccer cleats is the
most popular brand in England's Premier League. Also, about three fourths of the players in the NBA
wear Nike or Jordan shoes. We expect Nike's powerful brand will continue to allow it to sign the key
endorsement deals that will keep it on top.
Nike's brands have proven staying power, supporting our view that it can continue to earn economic
profits for at least the next 20 years. Michael Jordan signed with Nike in 1984 and retired from
basketball in 2003. Many millennials are not even old enough to have seen him play. Yet, Nike's upscale
Jordan brand produced $5.1 billion in (wholesale-equivalent) sales in fiscal 2022. While Jordan is Nike's
biggest star, James' shoes have been big sellers for Nike since he was a teenager. He signed a new
contract with Nike in 2015 that will reportedly pay him $30 million per year until 2048 (when he
celebrates his 64th birthday). Nike, which ships about twice as many pairs of shoes worldwide as
Adidas, has developed franchises with unusual longevity. We think Nike's key brands support our view
that it has a wide moat based on its brand intangible asset.
We believe Nike's innovations contribute to its brand and support our wide-moat view. Nike has been
known for its innovative products ever since it introduced running shoes with pressurized air in their
soles in the 1980s. Nike frequently releases new styles of running shoes. Recent editions to its large
family of shoes include Epic React (foam cushioning), VaporMax (new style of Air), and shoes with
ZoomX technology. Nike claims the ZoomX substance was developed for the aerospace industry and
returns as much as 85% of energy to the runner. While it may be hard to prove this claim, Nike's
dominance in running shoes is clear as the category produces about $4 billion in sales for the company.
Most of the world's leading track and field athletes wear Nike shoes. Its innovations allow it to maintain
premium pricing. Many Nike running shoes, such as the best-selling Air Zoom Pegasus, sell at prices
over $100 per pair. Nike Air Vapor Max, which sell for about $200 per pair at Foot Locker and other
stores, reportedly became the best-selling running shoe above $150 per pair within months of its launch
in 2017. We believe Nike is the leader in sports performance technology, providing a persistent
competitive edge.
We do not believe Nike has a moat based on a cost advantage. While Nike may have some cost
advantage over competitors in sponsorships due to its status as the premier sportswear brand, we don't
view this as significant or maintainable. Moreover, while endorsements are great for brand building,
they are difficult to quantify in terms of profit margins. While Nike's low double-digit operating margins
are very good, it is difficult to know if endorsements play a major role. It is possible that the firm simply
has expense leverage due its size. Nike has limited advantage in product costs as virtually all its © Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 6 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
production is outsourced. Narrow-moat Shenzhou International, for example, is one of Nike's largest
suppliers but also produces apparel for narrow-moat Adidas, Puma, and others.
We do not believe Nike has a moat based on anything aside from its brand intangible asset. We do not
think it has a moat based on efficient scale. While Nike's financial resources and relationships with
suppliers likely allow for production investment unavailable to others in the short term, any advantage
in this area is likely to be transitory. Competitors can probably gain access to similar technologies.
Moreover, much of apparel manufacturing remains manually intensive. We do not believe there is any
network effect in the apparel business and switching costs are nonexistent. Competing products to
Nike's footwear and clothing are widely available.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
We are lifting our fair value estimate on Nike’s shares to $134 from $129. Nike recorded a solid fiscal
2023 second quarter as its 17% (27% constant currency) sales growth eclipsed our 10% forecast.
Moreover, despite significant discounting to reduce its excessive amounts of out-of-season inventory, its
12.5% EBIT margin beat our 9.9% estimate. We now forecast 7% sales growth for the year, up from 4%
previously, and EPS of $3.20, up from $3.07. Even so, fiscal 2023 is a challenging year due to slowing
consumer spending and high markdowns in the apparel industry. Our fair value estimate implies a fiscal
2023 price/earnings ratio of 42 and an enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 31. For fiscal 2024, we
forecast $4.18 in EPS on 9% sales growth as Nike's margins recover.
We forecast compound average sales growth for Nike of about 7% over the next 10 years. We expect it
will achieve compound annual revenue growth of about 4.5% in North America, in line with expected
market growth. We think Nike’s innovative product and e-commerce will allow it to hold its market
position and premium pricing. In greater China, its fastest-growing segment prior to recent challenges
(such as virus-related lockdowns and the forced labor controversy), we expect compound average
growth of 12% over the next decade.
Although we anticipate a decline to 44% in fiscal 2023 from 46% in fiscal 2022 due to the inventory
issue, we forecast Nike’s gross margins will gradually improve to 49.3% in fiscal 2032. The firm may
increase gross margins through greater production and distribution efficiencies, its shift to digital sales,
and price increases.
We think Nike’s operating margins will rise as it increases sales in greater China, its most profitable
market. We forecast overall operating margins will gradually increase to the high teens over the next
decade, up from a five-year historical average of 12.5%. In greater China, Nike has achieved segment
EBIT margins of at least 35% in six of the last seven fiscal years. Although its EBIT margin declined to
31% in the region in fiscal 2022 due to the recent tumult, we anticipate average operating margins of
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 7 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
about 37% after fiscal 2023. In North America, we forecast segment operating margins of about 27% as
it increases its direct-to-consumer sales.
Our upside-case fair value estimate is $180. In this case, we forecast compound average annual revenue
growth of 8% over the next decade, including 10-year compound average growth of 6% in Nike’s North
America segment. Although the firm faces some lost sales from store closures, this case assumes it can
overcome this problem with e-commerce growth, innovative products, and high pricing. Further, our
upside case assumes 13% compound average growth for Nike’s greater China segment and 8% in
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa as the company outperforms Adidas on strength in international
football and other categories. On profitability, our upside scenario forecasts Nike’s gross margins
gradually increase to 51.3% in fiscal 2032 from 46% in fiscal 2022, while its operating margins reach
20.6%. In this case, Nike can slightly improve North America operating margins as full-priced sales
become a larger share of total sales. Its innovative products (such as Zoom and Joyride shoes) often sell
at full price, so increased innovation provides upside to margins. Moreover, Nike achieves high pricing
in China and has been gaining share in the country.
Our downside-case fair value estimate is $98. In this case, we assume 10-year compound average
growth of 3% for Nike’s North America segment, at the low end of our market growth expectation. The
firm’s North America growth may suffer if closures and discounting continue in the U.S. physical retail
market. It could also lose share in some categories to athleisure apparel from others. Our downside case
forecasts 5% compound average growth for Nike’s EMEA segment over the next decade as competition
intensifies. Further, this bear case assumes 11% compound average growth for its greater China
segment over the next 10 years. Although we expect Nike to remain a market leader, the Chinese
market is becoming increasingly competitive as American brands invest in the market. Nike may not be
able to maintain its high pricing if it fails to differentiate its brand and product. Further, our downside
scenario assumes the company’s gross margins rise to just 47.3% in fiscal 2032, while its operating
margins rise to just 15.7% in fiscal 2032. Nike’s margins in North America are at some risk to store
closures, discounting, and excessive inventory. Moreover, as there are many native sportswear brands
that sell low-priced activewear in China, the firm’s high prices and operating margins are vulnerable to
shifts in taste among local consumers.
Risk and Uncertainty David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
We assign a Medium Uncertainty Rating to Nike. Like many other multinational apparel and footwear
manufacturers, the company has struggled to manage its inventory due to shipping delays, virus
impacts, and slowing sales due to inflation’s impact on consumer spending. Nike has had to resort to
discounting some items to clear excess product. The firm has also been affected by increases in input
costs and by the strength of the U.S. dollar given its exposure to Europe, Asia, and other regions.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 8 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Nike is exposed to weakness in U.S. physical retail. Department stores that carry Nike products have
closed stores and will close more. The sporting goods channel has also been challenged. However, the
firm should be able to make up for weakness in some areas of retail through its direct-to-consumer
sales.
The athleisure trend and growth in activewear has attracted new competition. While Nike is the market
leader in many categories and many markets, some competitors, such as narrow-moat Lululemon, have
found success with fashionable specialty products.
We do not believe the environmental, social, and governance risks that affect Nike will have a material
impact on its financial results or investment prospects. Nonetheless, the firm tends to be a lightning rod
for controversy due to its high visibility. There are ongoing controversies concerning the treatment of its
female and minority employees, its efforts to reduce taxation, and the treatment of workers in its supply
chain. Moreover, Nike has become entangled in a forced labor controversy in China that has caused a
consumer backlash in the country. While we anticipate the impact will be short-lived, any lasting effects
could be damaging, as China is the fastest-growing sportswear market in the world and Nike's most
profitable region. We may revisit our view of Nike’s ESG risks if any of these controversies endanger its
profit potential.
Capital Allocation David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
We assign an Exemplary capital allocation rating to Nike. In the 15 years between December 2007 and
December 2022, Nike generated an average annual return to investors of 14%, well above the 9%
average annual return of the Morningstar U.S. Market Total Return Index over the span. Nike is the
largest U.S.-based apparel firm and the largest athletic apparel company in the world. Its adjusted
ROICs, including goodwill, have averaged 38% over the past five years, well above its estimated
weighted average cost of capital of 9%.
Nike has a strong balance sheet, having operated in a net cash position for most of the past decade.
Although the firm issued $6 billion in unsecured notes when the pandemic hit in the spring of 2020, we
believe this was just a precaution, and that the firm now has more cash than it needs to fund operations
and capital return plans. We forecast Nike will generate an annual average of $7.1 billion in free cash
flow to equity (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) over the next five years. Most of Nike’s
long-term debt matures after 2025.
Nike has been investing heavily in its direct-to-consumer efforts in recent years, and we have viewed
this as a sound and successful strategy. The firm has been expanding its physical store base and its
online operations. Its direct-to-consumer sales accounted for 42% of its Nike brand revenue in fiscal
2022, up from less than 20% before 2015. We estimate Nike’s fiscal 2022 capital expenditures at $1.5
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 9 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
billion (3% of sales), with much of the investment going into direct-to-consumer efforts. As it is a high
growth and high profit margin opportunity, we anticipate Nike will continue to build its direct-to-
consumer operations under CEO John Donahoe (who has an e-commerce background) for years to
come.
We think Nike has created value through acquisitions and dispositions. In 2003, Nike bought Converse
for just $305 million. Converse, known for its casual athletic canvas shoes, had gone bankrupt in 2001
and had just $205 million in sales in 2002, but Nike resurrected it. In fiscal 2022, Converse produced
$2.3 billion in sales and nearly $700 million in operating profit. While Nike continues to own Converse, it
has divested other brands. In 2012, for example, it sold Cole Haan for $570 million, 24 years after it had
bought it for $95 million. In 2019, Nike sold Hurley, which it had acquired in 2002, for an undisclosed
amount. We view dispositions of niche brands as beneficial to shareholders as they allow Nike to focus
on its core business.
Nike has returned significant cash to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. We project
the company will issue about $1.9 billion in dividends in fiscal 2023 and we expect its long-term
dividend payout ratio will be 31%. Nike also returns cash to shareholders through buybacks. In
November 2015, the company authorized a four-year, $12 billion stock-repurchase program. In June
2018, its board authorized a new four-year, $15 billion stock-repurchase program. Nike completed the
2015 buyback in the third quarter of fiscal 2019, having repurchased 192.1 million shares at an average
price of $62.47 and is now repurchasing stock under the 2018 program. Nike has reduced its share
count by roughly 15% over the past decade, and we expect it will repurchase $24 billion (net) in stock in
over the next five years. Unfortunately, in 2014-15, Nike repurchased billions of dollars of shares at
prices above our fair value estimate. If the company had halted buybacks instead, it could have
conserved cash for greater share buybacks in 2016-17 at prices below our fair value estimate.
Analyst Notes Archive
Wide-Moat Nike Overcomes Inventory and Other Challenges to Post Solid Q2 Sales; Shares
Attractive David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
Highlighted by a 17% (27% constant currency) revenue increase that eclipsed our 10% forecast, Nike
outperformed our expectations in fiscal 2023’s (November-ended) second quarter despite concerns of
slowing consumer spending due to inflation and widespread industry discounting. Nike itself has
needed to implement markdowns to clear an excessive amount of out-of-season apparel, especially in
North America. While its gross margin dropped 3 percentage points to 42.9% (slightly above our 42.3%
estimate) and its inventories remained high (up 43% from an unusually low level last year), we believe
both metrics are set to improve in the coming quarters due to sales momentum, product releases, and
the reopening of China’s economy after months of virus-related restrictions. Given these trends and the
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 10 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
quarterly outperformance, we expect to lift our $129 fair value estimate on Nike’s shares by a mid-
single-digit rate. After this lift, we still view its shares as attractive despite a 13% jump in post-market
trading on Dec. 20. We believe Nike’s results in a difficult footwear and apparel market support our
wide moat rating based on its brand intangible asset.
Nike’s 12.5% quarterly EBIT margin outperformed our 9.9% forecast due to the sales outperformance.
We anticipate its EBIT margin will increase to the high teens over the next decade as the firm’s
profitability benefits from its ongoing shift to direct-to-consumer from wholesale. Indeed, Nike reported
that its direct sales increased 25% in the quarter, including a 34% jump in e-commerce. The latter
statistic affirms that its digital sales strategy is paying off and is not just a product of the pandemic.
Even so, we do not believe the company intends to pull away from wholesale operations entirely.
Instead, we anticipate it will use its wholesale partners to boost its loyalty program, which currently has
160 million active members.
A Turnaround May Be Closer Than Widely Believed in Apparel Manufacturing and Retailing David
Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 3 Oct 2022
Investors have forsaken apparel manufacturers and retailers, which we believe present numerous
attractive opportunities. These firms have struggled with many issues in 2022, including higher
inventories, lower operating margins, inflation, logistical challenges, tough comparisons with 2021, low
international travel, and an extremely strong U.S. dollar. However, we see positive signs. In recent
weeks, shipping has shown signs of normalizing, and gas prices have dropped. Moreover, we anticipate
inventory levels will improve as manufacturers cancel shipments and sales increase in the holiday
season (as is typical). In 2023, we anticipate the benefits of investments in supply chains and other
operations by many apparel firms will become more apparent. Consequently, despite widespread
pessimism in the market, we believe now is a good time to consider the many apparel stocks trading
well below our fair value estimates.
We highlight 10 firms in disparate parts of the apparel sector as especially undervalued. Some of them
trade at price/earnings ratios in the single digits on what we believe to be depressed earnings. On the
retail side, narrow-moat Nordstrom and no-moat Gap, Urban Outfitters, and Kohl’s trade at market levels
40% or more below our fair value estimates of $42, $25, $35.50, and $54, respectively. These four firms
generally reported solid results in 2021 but have stumbled with merchandising and inflation issues in
2022, leading to share price declines of 30% or more over the past year. Even so, we do not believe any
of them are at risk of financial distress.
On the producer side, wide-moat Nike, narrow-moat Hanesbrands, Adidas, and Shenzhou International,
and no-moat PVH and Under Armour trade at sizable discounts to our fair value estimates of $133, $24,
EUR 206, HKD 140, $131, and $15.70, respectively. As with the retailers, the shares of these firms have
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 11 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
dropped sharply over the past year despite what we believe to be minimal risk of distress.
We Think Wide-Moat Nike’s Brand Value Holds Despite a Tough Near-Term Outlook; Shares
Undervalued David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 30 Sep 2022
Although Nike’s sales performance in its (end-August) first quarter of fiscal 2023 eclipsed our forecast,
this result was overshadowed by a disappointing near-term outlook due to the U.S. dollar’s strength and
elevated inventories for the firm and peers in North America. Despite healthy demand, Nike has recently
struggled to manage its product deliveries due to shipping woes, leading to a surplus of out-of-season
inventory. Specifically, its quarter-end inventory jumped 44%. While markdowns will weigh on second-
quarter margins, we believe the worst of Nike’s inventory issues has passed as shipping has normalized
and sell-through appears solid. The firm reported strong back-to-school demand and double-digit sales
growth thus far in September.
Nike’s share price dropped about 9% in postmarket trading on the report, but we anticipate only a low-
single-digit percentage cut to our $133 fair value estimate, leaving shares attractive. In the first quarter,
Nike recorded constant-currency sales growth in the teens in every region except greater China, which
we view as evidence that its brand intangible asset, the source of our wide moat rating, remains intact.
Moreover, we expect a relatively quick recovery as Nike appears to have a solid lineup of new products
and should get a boost from the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 and other sporting events. We still believe
Nike can reach gross and operating margins of 48% and 17%, respectively, in about five years as its
direct-to-consumer, cost efficiency, and product enhancements take hold.
Nike’s first-quarter EPS matched our $0.93 forecast. While, due to discounting, its 44.3% gross margin
missed our estimate by 110 basis points, its 4% sales growth beat our 1% expectation despite even
more U.S. dollar appreciation than anticipated. Moreover, it second-quarter guidance of low-double-
digit sales growth exceeds our 7% estimate, although its gross margin is likely to miss our 45.5%
forecast by about 3 points as it clears inventory.
Wide-Moat Nike Continues To Deal With External Challenges As Fiscal 2023 Begins; Shares
Undervalued David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 28 Jun 2022
Nike closed its (May-ended) fiscal 2022 with mixed results as significant virus-related disruptions in
China and continuing supply problems hampered sales. Moreover, the firm’s guidance for fiscal 2023
was soft due to unfavorable currency movement, high shipping costs, and uncertain consumer spending
amid high inflation. Specifically, Nike’s guidance suggests reported revenue growth may fall short of our
12% forecast due to the stronger U.S. dollar, while its gross margin may miss our 47.3% estimate by
around 130 to 180 basis points on greater discounting and higher shipping and other costs. Despite this
outlook, we think demand is generally healthy and expect some of these issues will abate as the fiscal
year progresses. Moreover, Nike intends to raise prices by mid-single-digit levels, which we think will be
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 12 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
accepted by the market due to its brand strength, the source of our wide-moat rating. Thus, we do not
expect to make any material change to our $133 fair value estimate, and view Nike’s shares as
attractive. We think investors are underestimating its brand strength and long-term growth prospects in
China, as well as the potential for margin enhancement as it continues to shift to direct-to-consumer
from wholesale distribution in North America.
Nike’s sales slipped 1% in the fourth quarter, missing our 1% growth estimate. Sales dropped 19% in
Greater China as lockdowns affected more than 100 cities. We believe results in the region are
improving as restrictions have been lifted. In North America, sales dropped 5%, a bit worse than our
negative 2% forecast, against a difficult comparison due to last year’s stimulus. While we think
consumer spending may be slowing due to inflation, we believe the impact on Nike is mild this far.
Meanwhile, the company reported strong 9% sales growth (20% constant-currency) in Europe, the
Middle East, and Africa, and is poised to continue this momentum with the World Cup and other major
football tournaments this year.
Wide-Moat Nike Overcomes Supply Woes and China Weakness to Post a Solid Q3; Shares Fully
Valued David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Mar 2022
Nike’s sales and profitability exceeded our estimates as it benefited from strong demand for activewear
in its (February-ended) fiscal 2022 third quarter. Given this result and a slight decrease in our long-term
tax rate assumption of 14% (we no longer expect a U.S. corporate tax hike), we expect to lift our $132
per share fair value estimate by a low-single-digit percentage. We view Nike’s shares, up about 6% in
post-market trading, as fairly valued.
Nike recorded 5% sales growth in the quarter, beating our 3% forecast, despite some shipping delays
that caused stock outs in North America. Demand for activewear was strong throughout the pandemic
and is receiving a further boost by the resumption of both amateur and professional sports.
However, for the second quarter in a row, Nike suffered a year-over-year sales decline in greater China.
While some of this weakness is attributable to virus-related restrictions, Chinese consumers have also
favored native sportswear brands in recent quarters to the detriment of both Nike and narrow-moat
Adidas. Although we believe Nike will return to growth in the region in the fourth quarter, this
nationalistic trend is worrisome as we forecast greater China will be its fastest-growing region over the
next 10 years, increasing at about 13% per year.
Nike recorded quarterly gross and operating margins of 46.6% and 15%, respectively, outperforming our
estimates of 46.2% and 13.6%. The firm believes that the supply chain challenges are abating, which
should further enhance its margins. While there is inflation pressure, Nike is implementing some price
increases, which we think will be accepted by the market. Our wide-moat rating on the company is
based on its brand intangible asset, as reflected in its strong pricing and gross margins. Nike has
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 13 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
targeted durable gross margins in the high-40s and operating margins in the high-teens by 2025, which
we view as achievable.
U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Unlikely to Change After Roadblocks Rise in Senate Julie Utterback, CFA,
Senior Equity Analyst, 23 Dec 2021
Given recent political developments around the Build Back Better bill, we are reversing our forecast that
the U.S. corporate tax rate will rise to 26% in 2022. We now believe the U.S. statutory tax rate will
remain at 21% at least through President Joe Biden’s remaining term, which ends in early 2025. Our
equity analysts will incorporate this new U.S. corporate tax rate assumption into their valuation models
in the coming weeks. We previously simulated the impact of various tax rate changes on covered U.S.
equities; reversing the statutory tax rate assumption to 21% results in a 3% average valuation increase,
all else being equal.
Given their slim majority in the Senate, Democrats needed to present a unified front to pass this bill, and
two Democratic senators presented roadblocks in recent months. First, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema opposed
raising the U.S. corporate tax rate, which led to consideration of funding methods other than a
corporate tax rate increase. Also, Sen. Joe Manchin has expressed opposition to the bill primarily
because providing the services included in recent proposals would wind up costing much more than the
$1.75 trillion headline number when extended for the typical 10-year term considered in the Senate's
budget reconciliation process.
Sinema's and Manchin’s current terms end in line with Biden's current term, so these roadblocks may
provide a hurdle to such a bill during that time frame. Also, considering recent polling numbers and
midterm election patterns, we would not be surprised to see Democrats lose a majority in at least one of
the congressional bodies after 2022’s election, which would prevent passage of such significant
legislation in the remainder of Biden’s term. Any way we slice it, the Build Back Better bill may not pass,
and even if a slimmed-down version passes in early 2022, we think it is highly unlikely that the U.S.
corporate tax rate will increase, given Sinema’s objections to that funding method. K
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 14 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Competitors Price vs. Fair Value
Under Armour Inc A UAA
0
10
20
30
40
Fair Value: 15.5028 Nov 2022 17:04, UTC
Last Close: 12.78Over ValuedUnder Valued
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.84 1.29 1.42 1.33 0.66 0.82 Price/Fair Value
22.45 22.24 -20.51 23.41 -52.05 25.79 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 2 Feb 2023. Last Close as of 2 Feb 2023. Fair Value as of 28 Nov 2022 17:04, UTC.
VF Corp VFC
0
50
100
150
200
Fair Value: 61.005 Dec 2022 20:18, UTC
Last Close: 31.14Over ValuedUnder Valued
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.96 1.53 1.53 1.11 0.45 0.51 Price/Fair Value
-1.04 51.15 -12.36 -11.97 -59.55 12.79 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 2 Feb 2023. Last Close as of 2 Feb 2023. Fair Value as of 5 Dec 2022 20:18, UTC.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 15 of 22
ß®
Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Hanesbrands Inc HBI
0
10
20
30
40
Fair Value: 22.0016 Nov 2022 03:44, UTC
Last Close: 6.28Over ValuedUnder Valued
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.46 0.53 0.61 0.64 0.29 0.29 Price/Fair Value
-37.21 23.30 2.22 18.79 -58.37 -1.26 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 2 Feb 2023. Last Close as of 2 Feb 2023. Fair Value as of 16 Nov 2022 03:44, UTC.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 16 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;;1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Morningstar Historical Summary
Financials as of 30 Nov 2022
Fiscal Year, ends 31 May 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD TTM
Revenue (USD Bil) 25 28 31 32 34 36 39 37 45 47 26 49
Revenue Growth % 8.5 9.8 10.1 5.8 6.1 6.0 7.5 -4.4 19.1 4.9 10.2 6.0
EBITDA (USD Mil) 3,740 4,266 4,824 5,164 5,465 5,219 5,492 4,234 7,734 7,515 3,761 7,337
EBITDA Margin % 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.0 15.9 14.3 14.0 11.3 17.4 16.1 14.5 14.9
Operating Income (USD Mil) 3,238 3,680 4,175 4,502 4,749 4,445 4,772 3,115 6,937 6,675 3,282 6,379
Operating Margin % 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 13.8 12.2 12.2 8.3 15.6 14.3 12.6 13.0
Net Income (USD Mil) 2,472 2,693 3,273 3,760 4,240 1,933 4,029 2,539 5,727 6,046 2,799 5,634
Net Margin % 9.8 9.7 10.7 11.6 12.3 5.3 10.3 6.8 12.9 12.9 10.8 11.5
Diluted Shares Outstanding (Mil) 1,833 1,812 1,769 1,743 1,692 1,659 1,618 1,592 1,609 1,611 1,579 1,591
Diluted Earnings Per Share (USD) 1.35 1.49 1.85 2.16 2.51 1.17 2.49 1.60 3.56 3.75 1.77 3.54
Dividends Per Share (USD) 0.41 0.47 0.54 0.62 0.70 0.78 0.86 0.96 1.07 1.19 0.65 1.26
Valuation as of 31 Jan 20232013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Recent Qtr TTM
Price/Sales 2.7 2.9 3.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 4.0 5.9 5.8 3.8 3.8 4.1Price/Earnings 26.7 28.7 30.3 22.4 27.1 55.9 35.5 80.0 43.7 33.0 33.0 36.0Price/Cash Flow 23.3 28.9 24.5 26.2 30.6 21.4 32.5 75.8 39.2 42.0 42.0 75.8Dividend Yield % 1.11 1.04 0.93 1.3 1.18 1.11 0.89 0.71 0.68 1.07 1.07 0.99Price/Book 6.2 7.1 8.0 6.8 8.6 13.4 16.9 21.0 17.7 11.9 11.9 12.9EV/EBITDA 17.7 18.7 21.3 15.8 18.3 22.3 29.4 52.9 33.8 24.4 0.0 0.0
Operating Performance / Profitability as of 30 Nov 2022
Fiscal Year, ends 31 May 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD TTM
ROA % 15.0 14.9 16.3 17.5 19.0 8.4 17.4 9.2 16.6 15.5 7.0 14.3ROE % 23.0 24.6 27.8 30.1 34.4 17.4 42.7 29.7 55.0 43.1 18.3 37.3ROIC % 21.3 21.9 25.0 26.6 27.8 13.0 30.8 15.1 24.6 22.6 10.1 20.3Asset Turnover 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.3
Financial LeverageFiscal Year, ends 31 May 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Recent Qtr TTM
Debt/Capital % 9.8 10.0 7.8 14.0 21.9 26.1 27.7 60.5 49.2 43.4 43.2 —Equity/Assets % 63.2 58.2 58.8 57.3 53.3 43.5 38.1 25.7 33.8 37.9 38.5 —Total Debt/EBITDA 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 3.1 1.7 1.7 3.3 —EBITDA/Interest Expense — — — — — — — — — — — —
Morningstar Analyst Historical/Forecast Summary as of 21 Dec 2022
Financials Estimates
Fiscal Year, ends 05-31-2022 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue (USD Mil) 44,538 46,710 49,875 54,230 58,303
Revenue Growth % 19.1 4.9 6.8 8.7 7.5
EBITDA (USD Mil) 7,734 7,472 6,752 8,649 9,796
EBITDA Margin % 17.4 16.0 13.5 16.0 16.8
Operating Income (USD Mil) 6,937 6,675 5,859 7,637 8,656
Operating Margin % 15.6 14.3 11.8 14.1 14.9
Net Income (USD Mil) 5,727 6,046 5,021 6,415 7,286
Net Margin % 12.9 12.9 10.1 11.8 12.5
Diluted Shares Outstanding (Mil) 1,609 1,611 1,569 1,535 1,504
Diluted Earnings Per Share(USD) 3.56 3.75 3.20 4.18 4.84
Dividends Per Share(USD) 0.96 1.07 1.19 1.33 1.48
Forward Valuation Estimates2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Price/Sales 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.4Price/Earnings 38.3 31.7 40.5 31.0 26.8Price/Cash Flow 36.1 41.4 51.5 24.7 28.0Dividend Yield % 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1Price/Book 17.2 12.5 13.2 13.6 13.3EV/EBITDA 27.9 24.9 30.0 23.4 20.7
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 17 of 22
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AppendixHistorical Morningstar RatingNike Inc Class B NKE 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
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Under Armour Inc A UAA 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
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VF Corp VFC 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
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© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 18 of 22
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Hanesbrands Inc HBI 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
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© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 19 of 22
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
Overview
At the heart of our valuation system is a detailed projec-tion of a company’s future cash flows, resulting from our analysts’ research. Analysts create custom industry and company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sheet, and capital investment assumptions into our glob-ally standardized, proprietary discounted cash flow, or DCF, modeling templates. We use scenario analysis, inde-pth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other analytical tools to augment this process. Moreover, we think analyzing valuation through discounted cash flows presents a better lens for viewing cyclical companies, high-growth firms, businesses with finite lives (e.g., mines), or companies expected to generate negative earnings over the next few years. That said, we don’t dis-miss multiples altogether but rather use them as support-ing cross-checks for our DCF-based fair value estimates. We also acknowledge that DCF models offer their own challenges (including a potential proliferation of estim-ated inputs and the possibility that the method may miss shortterm market-price movements), but we believe these negatives are mitigated by deep analysis and our longterm approach.
Morningstar’s equity research group (”we,” “our”) be-lieves that a company’s intrinsic worth results from the future cash flows it can generate. The Morningstar Rating for stocks identifies stocks trading at a discount or premi-um to their intrinsic worth—or fair value estimate, in Morningstar terminology. Five-star stocks sell for the biggest risk adjusted discount to their fair values, where-as 1-star stocks trade at premiums to their intrinsic worth.
Four key components drive the Morningstar rating: (1) our assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate of the stock’s fair value, (3) our uncertainty around that fair value estimate and (4) the current market price. This process ultimately culminates in our singlepoint star rat-ing.
1. Economic Moat
The concept of an economic moat plays a vital role not only in our qualitative assessment of a firm’s long-term investment potential, but also in the actual calculation of our fair value estimates. An economic moat is a structural feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a long period of time. We define economic profits as re-turns on invested capital (or ROIC) over and above our es-
timate of a firm’s cost of capital, or weighted average cost of capital (or WACC). Without a moat, profits are more susceptible to competition. We have identified five sources of economic moats: intangible assets, switching costs, network effect, cost advantage, and efficient scale.
Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are more likely than not to achieve normalized excess returns for at least the next 10 years. Wide-moat companies are those in which we have very high confidence that excess returns will remain for 10 years, with excess returns more likely than not to remain for at least 20 years. The longer a firm generates economic profits, the higher its intrinsic value. We believe low-quality, no-moat companies will see their normalized returns gravitate toward the firm’s cost of capital more quickly than companies with moats.
When considering a company's moat, we also assess whether there is a substantial threat of value destruction, stemming from risks related to ESG, industry disruption, financial health, or other idiosyncratic issues. In this con-text, a risk is considered potentially value destructive if its occurrence would eliminate a firm’s economic profit on a cumulative or midcycle basis. If we deem the probability of occurrence sufficiently high, we would not characterize the company as possessing an economic moat.
To assess the sustainability of excess profits, analysts per-form ongoing assessments of the moat trend. A firm’s moat trend is positive in cases where we think its sources of competitive advantage are growing stronger; stable where we don’t anticipate changes to competitive ad-vantages over the next several years; or negative when we see signs of deterioration.
2. Estimated Fair Value
Combining our analysts’ financial forecasts with the firm’s economic moat helps us assess how long returns on invested capital are likely to exceed the firm’s cost of capital. Returns of firms with a wide economic moat rat-ing are assumed to fade to the perpetuity period over a longer period of time than the returns of narrow-moat firms, and both will fade slower than no-moat firms, in-creasing our estimate of their intrinsic value.
Our model is divided into three distinct stages:
Stage I: Explicit Forecast
In this stage, which can last five to 10 years, analysts make full financial statement forecasts, including items such as revenue, profit margins, tax rates, changes in workingcapital accounts, and capital spending. Based on these projections, we calculate earnings before interest, after taxes (EBI) and the net new investment (NNI) to de-rive our annual free cash flow forecast.
Stage II: FadeThe second stage of our model is the period it will take the company’s return on new invested capital—the re-turn on capital of the next dollar invested (“RONIC”)—to decline (or rise) to its cost of capital. During the Stage II period, we use a formula to approximate cash flows in lieu of explicitly modeling the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement as we do in Stage I. The length of the second stage depends on the strength of the company’s economic moat. We forecast this period to last anywhere from one year (for companies with no eco-nomic moat) to 10–15 years or more (for wide-moat com-panies). During this period, cash flows are forecast using four assumptions: an average growth rate for EBI over the period, a normalized investment rate, average return on new invested capital (RONIC), and the number of years until perpetuity, when excess returns cease. The invest-ment rate and return on new invested capital decline un-til a perpetuity value is calculated. In the case of firms that do not earn their cost of capital, we assume marginal ROICs rise to the firm’s cost of capital (usually attribut-able to less reinvestment), and we may truncate the second stage.
Stage III: Perpetuity
Once a company’s marginal ROIC hits its cost of capital, we calculate a continuing value, using a standard per-petuity formula. At perpetuity, we assume that any growth or decline or investment in the business neither creates nor destroys value and that any new investment provides a return in line with estimated WACC.
Because a dollar earned today is worth more than a dollar earned tomorrow, we discount our projections of cash flows in stages I, II, and III to arrive at a total present value of expected future cash flows. Because we are modeling free cash flow to the firm—representing cash available to provide a return to all capital providers—we discount future cash flows using the WACC, which is a weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and pre-ferred stock (and any other funding sources), using ex-pected future proportionate long-term, market-value weights.
3. Uncertainty Around That Fair Value Estimate
Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating is designed to capture the range of potential outcomes for a company’s intrinsic value. This rating is used to assign the margin of safety required before investing, which in turn explicitly drives our stock star rating system. The Uncertainty Rating is
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 20 of 22
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodologyaimed at identifying the confidence we should have in as-signing a fair value estimate for a given stock.
Our Uncertainty Rating is meant to take into account any-thing that can increase the potential dispersion of future outcomes for the intrinsic value of a company, and any-thing that can affect our ability to accurately predict these outcomes. The rating begins with a suggested rat-ing produced by a quantitative process based on the trail-ing 12-month standard deviation of daily stock returns. An analyst overlay is then applied, with analysts using the suggested rating, historical rating data, and their own knowledge of the company to inform them as they make the final Uncertainty Rating decision. Ultimately, the rat-ing decision rests with the analyst. Analysts take into ac-count many characteristics when making their final de-cision, including cyclical factors, operational and financial factors such as leverage, company-specific events, ESG risks, and anything else that might increase the potential dispersion of future outcomes and our ability to estimate those outcomes.
Our recommended margin of safety—the discount to fair value demanded before we’d recommend buying or selling the stock—widens as our uncertainty of the es-timated value of the equity increases. The more uncertain we are about the potential dispersion of outcomes, the greater the discount we require relative to our estimate of the value of the firm before we would recommend the purchase of the shares. In addition, the Uncertainty Rat-ing provides guidance in portfolio construction based on risk tolerance.
Our Uncertainty Ratings are: Low, Medium, High, Very High, and Extreme.
Margin of Safety
Qualitative Analysis Uncertainty Ratings QQQQQRating QRating
Low 20% Discount 25% PremiumMedium 30% Discount 35% PremiumHigh 40% Discount 55% PremiumVery High 50% Discount 75% PremiumExtreme 75% Discount 300% Premium
Our uncertainty rating is based on the interquartile range, or the middle 50% of potential outcomes, covering the 25th percentile–75th percentile. This means that when a stock hits 5 stars, we expect there is a 75% chance that the intrinsic value of that stock lies above the current market price. Similarly, when a stock hits 1 star, we ex-pect there is a 75% chance that the intrinsic value of that stock lies below the current market price.
4. Market Price
The market prices used in this analysis and noted in the report come from exchange on which the stock is listed which we believe is a reliable source.
For more details about our methodology, please go to https://shareholders.morningstar.com.
Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks
Once we determine the fair value estimate of a stock, we compare it with the stock’s current market price on a daily basis, and the star rating is automatically re-calcu-lated at the market close on every day the market on which the stock is listed is open. Our analysts keep close tabs on the companies they follow, and, based on thor-ough and ongoing analysis, raise or lower their fair value estimates as warranted.
Please note, there is no predefined distribution of stars. That is, the percentage of stocks that earn 5 stars can fluctuate daily, so the star ratings, in the aggregate, can serve as a gauge of the broader market’s valuation. When there are many 5-star stocks, the stock market as a whole is more undervalued, in our opinion, than when very few companies garner our highest rating.
We expect that if our base-case assumptions are true the market price will converge on our fair value estimate over time generally within three years (although it is im-possible to predict the exact time frame in which market prices may adjust).
Our star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and individuals must consider their own specific investment goals, risk tolerance, tax situation, time horizon, income needs, and complete investment portfolio, among other
factors.
The Morningstar Star Ratings for stocks are defined be-low:QQQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk ad-justed return is highly likely over a multiyear time frame. Scenario analysis developed by our analysts indicates that the current market price represents an excessively pessimistic outlook, limiting downside risk and maximiz-ing upside potential.
QQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk-ad-justed return is likely.
QQQ Indicates our belief that investors are likely to re-ceive a fair risk-adjusted return (approximately cost of equity).
QQ We believe investors are likely to receive a less than fair risk-adjusted return.
Q Indicates a high probability of undesirable risk-adjus-ted returns from the current market price over a multiyear time frame, based on our analysis. Scenario analysis by our analysts indicates that the market is pricing in an ex-cessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and leaving the investor exposed to Capital loss.
Other Definitions
Last Price: Price of the stock as of the close of the mar-ket of the last trading day before date of the report.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 21 of 22
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments, and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet management, and dividend and share buyback policies. Corporate governance factors are only considered if they are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis-tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem-plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc-ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de-termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The Standard rating is most common as most managers will exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc-ation.
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri-or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro-cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con-sidered execution, compensation, related party transac-tions, and accounting practices in the rating.
Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments, and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet management, and dividend and share buyback policies. Corporate governance factors are only considered if they are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis-tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem-plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc-ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de-termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The Standard rating is most common as most managers will exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc-ation.
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri-or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro-cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con-sidered execution, compensation, related party transac-tions, and accounting practices in the rating.
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating Assessment:The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is provided by Sustainalytics; a Morningstar company.
Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to which company’s economic value at risk is driven by en-vironment, social and governance (ESG) factors.
Sustainalytics analyzes over 1,300 data points to assess a company’s exposure to and management of ESG risks. In other words, ESG Risk Ratings measures a company’s un-managed ESG Risks represented as a quantitative score. Unmanaged Risk is measured on an open-ended scale starting at zero (no risk) with lower scores representing less unmanaged risk and, for 95% of cases, the unman-aged ESG Risk score is below 50.
Based on their quantitative scores, companies are grouped into one of five Risk Categories (negligible, low, medium, high, severe). These risk categories are absolute, meaning that a ‘high risk’ assessment reflects a compar-able degree of unmanaged ESG risk across all subindus-tries covered.
The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a visual representa-tion of Sustainalytics ESG Risk Categories on a 1 to 5 scale. Companies with Negligible Risk = 5 Globes, Low Risk = 4, Medium Risk = 3 Globes, High Risk = 2 Globes, Severe Risk = 1 Globe. For more information, please visit sustainalytics.com/esg-ratings/
Ratings should not be used as the sole basis in evaluating a company or security. Ratings involve unknown risks and uncertainties which may cause our expectations not to occur or to differ significantly from what was expected and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell a security.
Risk Warning
Please note that investments in securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guar-antee that the intended investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance of a security may or may not be sustained in future and is no indication of future per-formance. A security investment return and an investor’s principal value will fluctuate so that, when redeemed, an investor’s shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. A security’s current investment performance may be lower or higher than the investment performance noted within the report. Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating serves as a useful data point with respect to sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in our determining a fair value price.
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© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 22 of 22
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
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