Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales ?Data

Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales

?Data pertaining to the case will be provided and students will analyze the case using an appropriate analytic procedure.?

??Each student is required to submit a single Excel file through Canvas. The excel file should include a single worksheet as the cover page indicating name and several worksheets (one for each question) to address each question with detailed analysis and short summary. Please show all your analysis supporting your solution. Grading will be based on both analysis and final solution to each question.

Data

Month	Sales
1	242
2	235
3	232
4	178
5	184
6	140
7	145
8	152
9	110
10	130
11	152
12	206
13	263
14	238
15	247
16	193
17	193
18	149
19	157
20	161
21	122
22	130
23	167
24	230
25	282
26	255
27	265
28	205
29	210
30	160
31	166
32	174
33	126
34	148
35	173
36	235

Sheet2

Sheet3

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Case?Problem:?Forecasting?Food?and?Beverage?Sales

The?Vintage?Restaurant,?on?Captiva?Island?near?Fort?Myers,?Florida,?is?owned?and?operated?by
Karen?Payne.?The?restaurant?just?completed?its?third?year?of?operation.?During?those?three
years,?Karen?sought?to?establish?a?reputation?for?the?restaurant?as?a?high?quality?dining
establishment?that?specializes?in?fresh?seafood.?Through?the?efforts?of?Karen?and?her?staff,?her
restaurant?has?become?one?of?the?best?and?fastest?growing?restaurants?on?the?island.

To?better?plan?for?future?growth?of?the?restaurant,?Karen?needs?to?develop?a?system?that?will
enable?her?to?forecast?food?and?beverage?sales?by?month?for?up?to?one?year?in?advance.?The
following?table?shows?the?value?of?food?and?beverage?sales?($1,000s)?for?the?first?three?years
of?operation:

Month
First
Year

Second
Year

Third
Year

January 242 263 282

February 235 238 255

March 232 247 265

April 178 193 205

May 184 193 210

June 140 149 160

July 145 157 166

3/1/2017 Print?Preview

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Month
First
Year

Second
Year

Third
Year

August 152 161 174

September 110 122 126

October 130 130 148

November 152 167 173

December 206 230 235

Managerial?Report

Perform?an?analysis?of?the?sales?data?for?the?Vintage?Restaurant.?Prepare?a?report?for?Karen
that?summarizes?your?findings,?forecasts,?and?recommendations.?Include?the?following:

1. A?time?series?plot.?Comment?on?the?underlying?pattern?in?the?time?series.

2. Using?the?dummy?variable?approach,?forecast?sales?for?January?through?December?of
the?fourth?year.

How?would?you?explain?this?model?to?Karen?

Assume?that?January?sales?for?the?fourth?year?turn?out?to?be?$295,000.?What?was?your
forecast?error??If?this?error?is?large,?Karen?may?be?puzzled?about?the?difference?between?your
forecast?and?the?actual?sales?value.?What?can?you?do?to?resolve?her?uncertainty?about?the
forecasting?procedure?

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Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales ?Data

Data

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Sheet3

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